Opinion Piece: Conservatives Can Win.
By Punchwood
The big takeaway from the recent by-election is not JayDee’s return to frontline politics, it’s the fact that Europeia’s conservative faction (the name given to the group of Europeian’s that either oppose or are hesitant to reform) can win. Olde Delaware, won just over a quarter of the vote with his very conservative platform which opposed HEM’s reform proposals, speedy reform and even the splitting of the executive branch. Conservatives could have done better and I think they even could have won if they had a better flag bearer. Olde Delaware simply wasn’t the right candidate, he suffered from significant problems and his platform was probably too conservative to be electable in the current political climate. Another more moderate conservative candidate, who didn’t suffer from the problems that Olde Delaware had, such as Modernist Decisions could have won this by-election and could win future Senate elections. The conservative viewpoint is large enough that it can win elections, they just need to play their cards right.
Olde Delaware was a bad candidate in this election, there’s just no other way of putting it. He had just came off from a long LoA which meant he had not been visible in the region before his decision to stand and so no one had seen him actively engage in the region or the reform discussions and this was always going to hurt his credibility in the election. Everyone understands that people need to take LoAs from time to time and no one would ever criticise someone for taking one, however running for elected office straight after a long LoA had just expired is going to raise more than a few eyebrows. His timing to stand also harmed his credibility I feel. It was less than 24 hours before polls opened when he stood and it was right during a radio broadcast. Indeed listening to the broadcast live and watching the chat it felt like Olde Delaware stood more to provide a discussion point for the broadcast rather than from a true desire to serve the region. I don’t think I am alone in that feeling and even if I am, standing for election less than a day before polls opened must have again raised more than a few eyebrows. It’s unusual, unprofessional and maybe even un-senatorial.
There’s also the fact that he suffered from abysmal approval ratings from his previous term in the Senate. 62.6 percent of respondents to the EBC Senate poll disapproved of his performance and just 12.6 percent said they approved of his performance. These are not numbers that a five week break can solve. To improve these numbers Olde Delaware would need to have been incredibly active in both the CA and the Constitutional Convention - he has been active in neither. There is also the fact that the most, people remember of his Senate term was his performance in the Rach confirmation hearing. It raised concerns for some that he was unprofessional and allowed personal disagreements to affect his judgement. He did nothing to allay these fears during his campaign by threatening to call a recall referendum on a sitting Senator for alleged "slander" about him being anti-reform and for "lying to the people." His entire performance throughout this debacle was anything but professional and destroyed any creditability he had.
A poor candidate however was not the sole reason conservatives lost. Olde Delaware's platform as I’ve mentioned previously was perhaps just too conservative to win. The region is very much pro-reform, one poll suggested 80% of the region was in favour of some kind of reform and that around 60% of people supported HEM’s current reform proposals. A candidate opposed to all reform simply cannot win in this climate, Olde Delaware wasn’t against all reform but he was only in favour of fairly minimal reform. For conservatives to win they need to appeal to some moderates. These could be people who are only in favour of executive reform, those who aren’t sure what type of reform they support yet or even those who just want reform to “slow down,” for discussion to last longer and in a more public setting. This loose coalition of conservatives and moderates could be enough to win representation in the Senate. Olde Delaware’s very conservative platform likely put off some of those moderates who may have supported him. This is where a more moderate conservative candidate, one who was open to some reform or one who was open to reform provided it happened over a longer-time period could have won over those moderates. All conservatives would be forced to support them even if they were more moderate than they’d like if they wanted any representation and crucially this moderate conservative could win over moderate voters who could put them over the finishing line.
If a poor candidate and a very conservative platform can win just over a quarter of the vote then there’s no doubt in my mind that a better candidate and a more moderate platform can win a Senate seat. The conservative faction fielded the wrong candidate and the wrong platform in this election, if they compromise and start appealing to those more moderate voters they can win. They can win representation and can have a far larger say in the reforms and indead a larger say in the future of the region if they are willing to unite around more moderate conservatives. They can win votes, they can win elections. The traditional conservative cannot, this election proved that fact. Conservatives have a choice, they can either give up a few beliefs and a few principles and unite around those moderate conservatives, or they can give up all their beliefs and principles and lose more elections and lose their say in the Senate.
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