Opinion Piece: Conservatives Can Win.


Opinion Piece: Conservatives Can Win.
By Punchwood
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The big takeaway from the recent by-election is not JayDee’s return to frontline politics, it’s the fact that Europeia’s conservative faction (the name given to the group of Europeian’s that either oppose or are hesitant to reform) can win. Olde Delaware, won just over a quarter of the vote with his very conservative platform which opposed HEM’s reform proposals, speedy reform and even the splitting of the executive branch. Conservatives could have done better and I think they even could have won if they had a better flag bearer. Olde Delaware simply wasn’t the right candidate, he suffered from significant problems and his platform was probably too conservative to be electable in the current political climate. Another more moderate conservative candidate, who didn’t suffer from the problems that Olde Delaware had, such as Modernist Decisions could have won this by-election and could win future Senate elections. The conservative viewpoint is large enough that it can win elections, they just need to play their cards right.

Olde Delaware was a bad candidate in this election, there’s just no other way of putting it. He had just came off from a long LoA which meant he had not been visible in the region before his decision to stand and so no one had seen him actively engage in the region or the reform discussions and this was always going to hurt his credibility in the election. Everyone understands that people need to take LoAs from time to time and no one would ever criticise someone for taking one, however running for elected office straight after a long LoA had just expired is going to raise more than a few eyebrows. His timing to stand also harmed his credibility I feel. It was less than 24 hours before polls opened when he stood and it was right during a radio broadcast. Indeed listening to the broadcast live and watching the chat it felt like Olde Delaware stood more to provide a discussion point for the broadcast rather than from a true desire to serve the region. I don’t think I am alone in that feeling and even if I am, standing for election less than a day before polls opened must have again raised more than a few eyebrows. It’s unusual, unprofessional and maybe even un-senatorial.

There’s also the fact that he suffered from abysmal approval ratings from his previous term in the Senate. 62.6 percent of respondents to the EBC Senate poll disapproved of his performance and just 12.6 percent said they approved of his performance. These are not numbers that a five week break can solve. To improve these numbers Olde Delaware would need to have been incredibly active in both the CA and the Constitutional Convention - he has been active in neither. There is also the fact that the most, people remember of his Senate term was his performance in the Rach confirmation hearing. It raised concerns for some that he was unprofessional and allowed personal disagreements to affect his judgement. He did nothing to allay these fears during his campaign by threatening to call a recall referendum on a sitting Senator for alleged "slander" about him being anti-reform and for "lying to the people." His entire performance throughout this debacle was anything but professional and destroyed any creditability he had.

A poor candidate however was not the sole reason conservatives lost. Olde Delaware's platform as I’ve mentioned previously was perhaps just too conservative to win. The region is very much pro-reform, one poll suggested 80% of the region was in favour of some kind of reform and that around 60% of people supported HEM’s current reform proposals. A candidate opposed to all reform simply cannot win in this climate, Olde Delaware wasn’t against all reform but he was only in favour of fairly minimal reform. For conservatives to win they need to appeal to some moderates. These could be people who are only in favour of executive reform, those who aren’t sure what type of reform they support yet or even those who just want reform to “slow down,” for discussion to last longer and in a more public setting. This loose coalition of conservatives and moderates could be enough to win representation in the Senate. Olde Delaware’s very conservative platform likely put off some of those moderates who may have supported him. This is where a more moderate conservative candidate, one who was open to some reform or one who was open to reform provided it happened over a longer-time period could have won over those moderates. All conservatives would be forced to support them even if they were more moderate than they’d like if they wanted any representation and crucially this moderate conservative could win over moderate voters who could put them over the finishing line.

If a poor candidate and a very conservative platform can win just over a quarter of the vote then there’s no doubt in my mind that a better candidate and a more moderate platform can win a Senate seat. The conservative faction fielded the wrong candidate and the wrong platform in this election, if they compromise and start appealing to those more moderate voters they can win. They can win representation and can have a far larger say in the reforms and indead a larger say in the future of the region if they are willing to unite around more moderate conservatives. They can win votes, they can win elections. The traditional conservative cannot, this election proved that fact. Conservatives have a choice, they can either give up a few beliefs and a few principles and unite around those moderate conservatives, or they can give up all their beliefs and principles and lose more elections and lose their say in the Senate.
 
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Interesting analysis of a current event, Punchwood!

EDIT: Also a reasonable counter to Johnny’s article.
 
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I question if there really is a large-enough faction of "moderates" in Europeia to make a more significant impact on Euro's elections; I'd also be curious to see what the composition of the moderates is (e.g. are they mostly focused on Discord or more social players? are they younger members or more tenured long-term Europeians?).

These could be people who are only in favour of executive reform, those who aren’t sure what type of reform they support yet or even those who just want reform to “slow down,” for discussion to last longer and in a more public setting.
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Emphasis mine here; HEM already laid out elsewhere the timeline of events, but our reform discussions haven't been going too quickly nor have they been in less-than-public settings.
 
Great article Punch.

Couple of things, if I may.

As this has gone on I am growing increasingly concerned that Euro doesn't know exactly the difference between a Conservative (No Reform) and a Moderate (Some reform). I am not a conservative, I am not against wholesale reform but reform in moderation and not done haphazardly. There's no committed faction that asked me to run, though the article was correct that running in the race was a spur of the moment decision that came while listening to the radio hosts cut into both Vlaska and JayDee's platforms like knives through butter. Such a run was encouraged by I want to say at least 6 people in the radio chat at the time including from one of the radio hosts and the liker of the hit piece above, Kuramia.

Though I won't argue the poor candidate label. It was a spur of the moment candidacy that came after a poor showing as a Senator and a long term LOA.

As far as destroying any credibility, I don't think it really did. You have to use political capital or in this case everything you have to argue your point. I had exactly no political capital and only my experience to rely on. My credibility in this matter is my experience both RL and across NS. I've done this type of reform before and with success. The only thing I may have damaged or destroyed was a working relationship with the reform bloc. I don't play well when I am insulted, lied about or otherwise character assassinated and I really don't know many others that are. You have one of the biggest names in reform opening flaunting the fact that he has a seat which is really unprofessional in and of itself. This same Senator decided to unilaterally enter the voting booth and unleash not one but two immediately disproven lies to two voters which had to be reigned in by the Admins. While the author may disagree, I don't think its out of the realms of possibility to explore a recall referendum for the same reasons the author put my actions which could rightly be considered "unprofessional and unsenatorlike".

At the end of the day, the rest of the article made a great point. While I may now and may never be "the guy" or "the face", the fact of the matter is still that the region is incredibly divided on whether or not this reform at all costs method that is being used right now is the reform that we want. We know the region wants reform, we've been down that road at least a dozen times in the span from Sunday to Tuesday. But neither side has polling data on exactly how the region wants that reform and to argue that being "tasked to proceed" as Prim mentioned is the same as the reform at all costs measure the Reform bloc has taken is at best factually wrong and at worse a badly spun lie. We've seen from discussions in the CC that there are no plans or even the talk of plans for undertaking most of the ground work to ensure that the presented reforms are even successful.

It's always been talked about that Euro and NS is by and large a political simulator and in many political simulators the majority talks and the minority walks. However, on issues like this where we are going to need every available person from both factions to ensure whichever plan we vote on works. Further alienating the minority on this issue may see Euro get the reform the bloc wants but then no one here to help them carry it out.
 
To be fair though, this poll was done before HEM posted his actual draft proposal, which had some curveballs that weren't really laid out in the concept model.

It'd be interesting to see how people would vote now, after the HEM draft proposal, the reworks on it, the discussion in Senate/GH/CC/by-election, etc.

Also, calling this a "hit piece" was a little bold.... >.>

[EDIT] OD, if you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen. You ran a campaign that smeared the current Senate's efforts at reform, you insisted that roadblocks be put up to slow down reform, and demanded that a non-Senator be appointed as Convention Chair because you thought the current Chair was too pro-reform and biased. People called you out on these things, you got defensive and belligerent, and it's not the first time that's happened.

But yes, Kari is right, there have been multiple polls showing citizens broadly in support of reform in general, and reform proposals in specific, not to mention a whole Senate filled with people who ran on staunchly pro-reform platforms, and a pro-reform Pres/VP. I think the region has sort of spoken about how it wants us to proceed, whether you agree with it or not.
 
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Lethen said:
:unsure: Its even funnier because lately, both of you (plus Kari) have been acting like children.
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Its safe to say were all passionate and stubborn to move off of our beliefs whether right or wrong. Out of politics, I still think incredibly highly of Prim and of Kari.
 
Very interesting piece, thank you Punch!
 
Can they really win if they can't put up a candidate who could win? Like, the most important part of trying to win is putting up a candidate. To be clear, this isn't commentary on OD, but just commentary on the fact that it's hard to win when no one who is a "conservative" bothers to skin in the game.
 
An interesting point; no one wants to be called a "conservative." OD here has said he is not a conservative and another member wanted their name removed from the article when I branded them a conservative. Is this because people don't view themselves as conservative or because it's seen as politically bad to be called a conservative?
 
Perhaps because reform is now seen as inevitable, people who have reservations might not want to be seen as such once the reforms are done. Not a great way to start off someone's reputation in the new government being seen as recalcitrant during the transition.
 
Punchwood said:
An interesting point; no one wants to be called a "conservative." OD here has said he is not a conservative and another member wanted their name removed from the article when I branded them a conservative. Is this because people don't view themselves as conservative or because it's seen as politically bad to be called a conservative?
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Both. If people are so touchy about being labeled it perhaps they should reflect on the actions that leads to them being perceived as such. Their own view of their stance does not equal that of what people perceive them to be, the public view that has been shaped via their own actions and comments.
 
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