Executive Approval Ratings - Prime Minister Analysis
By Punchwood
Punchwood 6
Kuramia 5
Pierce 4
Whitmark 3
Prim 3
JayDee 3
HEM 2
Kari 2
Gleg
Izzy
Rachael
Bowzin
Split should not occur 2
Newcomer
Probably not passed soon
Anyone
Kuramia 5
Pierce 4
Whitmark 3
Prim 3
JayDee 3
HEM 2
Kari 2
Gleg
Izzy
Rachael
Bowzin
Split should not occur 2
Newcomer
Probably not passed soon
Anyone
Our polling results suggest that the Prime Minister field could be as wide and open as the 2020 Democratic primary! We can essentially break down this list of names into four different categories; the frontrunners, the midtierers, the dark-horses and the longshots.
In the frontrunner category we have Punchwood, Kuramia and Pierce. These three candidates have a variety of credentials which makes them strong contenders for Prime Minister. Minister Punchwood just edges out in front of the other two and with his very high approval rating (higher than both Kuramia’s and Pierce’s) he may be able to claim the title as frontrunner. However two previous failed Presidential bids may hold him back and he may struggle to “reinvent himself” to the public. Chief of Staff Kuramia comes in just behind Punchwood with five mentions. While her approval ratings for this term may not be amazing, she has had many previous successful terms and has considerable experience in a variety of fields. She could easily create a formidable campaign and be a strong threat to anyone else seeking the role of Prime Minister. Vice President Pierce has a strong approval rating and there is clearly interest amongst the public to see the Vice President continue in a leadership role. However, the fact that Pierce has been leading the domestic side of the Executive branch since the beginning of the term but does not come out on top in terms of mentions, could be an early warning sign that he may not be able to gather enough support to win.
In the mid-tier category we find Whitmark, Prim and JayDee. Each of these candidates gathers three mentions, and while they may not be as formidable as the frontrunners at this moment, any of these names could become a strong contender provided they make the correct moves. Former Senator Whitmark likely has the least amount of experience of all the names mention, yet despite this, he has gathered some mention and in previous polls gathered a number of mentions for President as well. Whitmark could try to portray himself as a fresh face and that a new position requires a fresh face to bring excitement to the office. However his lack of experience is likely to be the greatest hurdle to his chances. Senator Prim has both legislative and executive experience and many have longed to see him run for President or at the very least, serve as Vice President . Prim could use his previous executive experience combined with champagning reform to become a strong contender. Champagning reform however could be a double edged sword, with the Senator becoming increasingly polarizing for his views on reform. He may be seen as too much of a divisive figure and the region may want a uniting candidate after many months of sometimes bitter reform discussions. Speaker JayDee also makes it into this category. Once known for harbouring Presidential ambitions, the Speaker has fully returned to political activity and may be tempted to run for the new position. JayDee would certainly have the required experience to run for the office, however questions around his character which have often dogged him, may once again harm his chances. He has been recently attack by former Speaker Aexnidaral Seymour for his handling of reform in the Senate and controversies such as these are not healthy for any election campaign.
In our darkhorse category we have HEM and Kari. Both sitting Senators and both very strong pro-reformers, if we do see Prime Ministerial elections it’ll be because of the actions of these two. Support for their potential runs may be low right now, but both may be able to distinguish themselves in a crowded field. Minister HEM who has previously served as President, has no issue when it comes to experience and having essentially started the reform discussions may be seen as a “safe” choice by many. Voters may be looking for a newer face for this fresh position however and HEM may simply be considered “too safe.” Senator Kari has been one of the most forceful advocates of reform and this likely contributed to her strong re-election result. Often seen as being very strong and determined, voters may see these qualities as being highly attractive for an Executive leader. However these qualities have been interpreted by some to be aggressive and this alleged aggressiveness may turn some voters off her.
Finally in our longshot category we have the remaining names; Writinglegend, Izzy, Rachael and Bowzin. These names are considered long-shots as firstly there appears to be little public interest in these names running for Prime Minister and secondly because, these names will either lack the experience required to make up for their low numbers or if they do have the experience to set up a credible campaign despite the low enthusiasm, they have not taken the steps that one would be expecting potential candidates to make.
