ENN Poll: This Is Cat's Election To Lose

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"ENN Poll: This Is Cat's Election To Lose"
HEM Tiberius
ENN Publisher

Over the last 24 hours ENN surveyed 29 citizens who expressed their opinions on the current administration, the upcoming Presidential Election, and other current events in Europeia.

The poll was made up of 58.5% new members and 41.5% old members. For the purposes of this survey, citizens who joined 2015 - 2017 are considered new members, and citizens who joined 2007 - 2014 are considered old members (happy graduation day 2014!)

Our survey showed that Deputy Minister Cat leads with 62.1% of the vote, against Former Foreign Affairs Minister Brunhilde's 31% of the vote. Snowball, stands in a distant third with 3.4% of the vote. Only 3.4% describe themselves as "completely undecided." Because of this, there is virtually no tangible difference between this question, and the question that prompts undecided voters to pick a candidate with no "undecided" option.


These results bode very poorly for the Brunhilde / Rand ticket, and are prompting ENN to change our official characterization of the race from Lean Cat to Likely Cat. We had previously changed our characterization on August 21st from Tossup to Lean Cat after the release of Monkey's Poll.


Unsurprisingly, Brunhilde performs much better among older members than newer members. If only citizens who joined from 2007 - 2014 were allowed to vote, this would be a much closer race, though Brunhilde would still be behind with 41.70% of the vote.

There are several reasons why Brunhilde may be struggling.

First off, the current administration is incredibly popular. President Writinglegend will be leaving office with a 79.3% approval rating. And while only 3.4% strongly approve of his term, a minuscule 20.7% disapprove, and nobody strongly disapproves. Words that people associate with his administration include phrases like "Open-Minded", "Strong", "Interesting," and "Passionate". Words like "Stale" and "Slow" also showed up prolifically, and may reflect the non-reformist nature of Writinglegend's time as President, or merely the fact that he has been President for so long.


51.7% of voters say that President Writinglegend's spot on Cat's ticket make them more likely to vote for her. This compared to 34.5% who say it makes them less likely, and 13.8% who say it makes no difference.

In contrast, Rand appears to be doing the opposite for Brunhilde. 55.2% of respondents say that his presence on the ticket makes them less likely to vote for her, compared to 24.1% who say "more likely" and 20.7% who say "no impact."

Also potentially harming Brunhilde, is her current title of Vice Chancellor. Despite several high profile defenses, some voters still have significant concerns as to Brunhilde running for President from the Chancellery. While 51.7% of respondents said they were not concerned, and the position would have no impact on their vote, the rest of the region had varying degrees of concern. 20.7% of respondents characterized their concern as "extreme" and said it definitely had influence on their vote, with 13.8% apiece saying that they "mildly" or "slightly" concerned.

That being said, the vast majority of the region expresses that they have either "regained" or "continued" support in the Chancellery.


When looking region-wide, most people are fairly optimistic, saying that we are on the right track:

Looking at the past term, how do you think Europeia is doing?

Right Direction: 65.5%
Wrong Track: 34.5%

Looking at the past year, how do you think Europeia is doing?

Right Direction: 48.3%
Wrong Track: 34.5%
Not Here For a Year: 17.2%

These numbers are more-or-less the same as when ENN asked the same question in March 2017.

One question from March 2017 that has changed a lot, however, is the question about the work ethic required of older members to achieve governmental office:

Which statement best characterizes your view? (March 2017)

Older members expect to be handed political positions without putting in the work: 22.9%
Older members work for political positions, but not as hard as newer members have to: 48.6%
Older members work just as hard for political positions as newer members: 28.6%

Which statement best characterizes your view? (August 2017)

Older members expect to be handed political positions without putting in the work: 24.1% (+1.2%)
Older members work for political positions, but not as hard as newer members have to: 69% (+20.4%)
Older members work just as hard for political positions as newer members: 6.9% (-21.7%)

In the last five months, public perception has shifted drastically toward the idea that older members have a much easier ride, and that breaking through as a newer member is extremely difficult.

When looking at policy issues independently from candidates (at least in theory), members have generally favorable views of both reviving the internship program and EuroWorks.

Regardless of who you are voting for, do you think EuroWorks is a good idea?

Definitely a good idea: 31%
Probably a good idea: 31%
Probably not a good idea: 13.8%
Definitely not a good idea: 17.2%
Not sure what "EuroWorks" is: 6.9%

Regardless of who you are voting for, do you think reviving the Internship program is a good idea?

Definitely a good idea: 17.9%
Probably a good idea: 53.6%
Probably not a good idea: 17.9%
Definitely not a good idea: 7.1%
Not sure what the "Internship Program" is: 3.6%

An issue that was much more divisive, however, was the matter of withdrawing from CAIN.

Irregardless of who you are voting for, what do you believe Europeia needs to do in regards to CAIN?

Definitely leave CAIN: 20.7%
Probably leave CAIN: 34.5%
Definitely remain in CAIN: 17.2%
Probably remain in CAIN: 24.1%
Unsure of what "CAIN" is: 3.4%

A small majority of 55.2% believe that it is "probably" or "definitely" time to leave the Europeia-led coalition vs. 41.3% of the region who believe that we "probably" or "definitely" should stay. Regardless of what the next President choses to do, they will likely have detractors who oppose their position on this particular issue.

##​
 
There are certain aspects of Brunhilde's campaign that I really like, but I find her platform as a whole to be surprisingly weak despite the apparent long term planning and the Chancellery connections to also be a bit of a turnoff.
 
Which statement best characterizes your view? (August 2017)

Older members expect to be handed political positions without putting in the work: 24.1% (+1.2%)
Older members work for political positions, but not as hard as newer members have to: 69% (+20.4%)
Older members work just as hard for political positions as newer members: 6.9% (-21.7%)
This is honestly the most important part of the poll
 
Well, Cat, you better watch out for those voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin who are "economically anxious" :ph43r:
 
It's interesting to see the difference in the "floors" between candidates, and by "floor" I mean respondents who said they were "strongly behind" a particular candidate. Cat's floor is 2/3rds of her support, compared to Brun's which is the reverse, and Snowball's which doesn't exist.

CAIN while divisive, doesn't seem to be the big issue in the minds of the voters either given that a majority support leaving, yet a majority also supports the candidate who wants to stay in.

Overall I'm really surprised how these polls have been turning out, I suppose polling will always be a tad inaccurate, but I had this election pegged as a Brun 60/40 in shortly after Cat's campaign was released. I guess I didn't see the same things as the typical Europeian :p
 
My choice was a real gun to my head one, and if I believed in abstention, I'd be abstaining from this election completely, but I believe that one must always vote for the best of the available options in elections, rather than just sit out.
 
That Chancellery is an issue to some voters seems... unreasonable. The Boogeyman has been successfully created. FTR I'm probably a toss up this election, but Brun's position in the Chancellery should have no impact on voters.
 
Kylia Quilor said:
My choice was a real gun to my head one, and if I believed in abstention, I'd be abstaining from this election completely, but I believe that one must always vote for the best of the available options in elections, rather than just sit out.
I'm similarly torn, but like you, I'll make a call one way or the other.
 
PhDre said:
That Chancellery is an issue to some voters seems... unreasonable. The Boogeyman has been successfully created. FTR I'm probably a toss up this election, but Brun's position in the Chancellery should have no impact on voters.
I have to agree. The can of worms Vert opened and... certain individuals then ripped the lid right off of has now started to take root in the region.
 
Which statement best characterizes your view? (August 2017)

Older members expect to be handed political positions without putting in the work: 24.1% (+1.2%)
Older members work for political positions, but not as hard as newer members have to: 69% (+20.4%)
Older members work just as hard for political positions as newer members: 6.9% (-21.7%)
I'm wondering if this large change is due to the uproar of Possibly This's upset over Skizzy back then and a greater number of older members being up in arms over that issue. Now that things have returned to normal, I think less hysteria is the reason for that drop in the final category.
 
GraVandius said:
Which statement best characterizes your view? (August 2017)

Older members expect to be handed political positions without putting in the work: 24.1% (+1.2%)
Older members work for political positions, but not as hard as newer members have to: 69% (+20.4%)
Older members work just as hard for political positions as newer members: 6.9% (-21.7%)
I'm wondering if this large change is due to the uproar of Possibly This's upset over Skizzy back then and a greater number of older members being up in arms over that issue. Now that things have returned to normal, I think less hysteria is the reason for that drop in the final category.
PT worked hard for his Senatorship. By which I mean he ran 9+ times. That election wasn't an example of young players working hard particularly for a position because PT did nothing of value legislatively besides run every election. It was definitely a referendum on experienced and qualified older members expecting that new / younger citizens value their previous contributions without continued visible service. It did not help that skizzy does not use discord which we see time and again is a political edge.
 
PhDre said:
GraVandius said:
Which statement best characterizes your view? (August 2017)

Older members expect to be handed political positions without putting in the work: 24.1% (+1.2%)
Older members work for political positions, but not as hard as newer members have to: 69% (+20.4%)
Older members work just as hard for political positions as newer members: 6.9% (-21.7%)
I'm wondering if this large change is due to the uproar of Possibly This's upset over Skizzy back then and a greater number of older members being up in arms over that issue. Now that things have returned to normal, I think less hysteria is the reason for that drop in the final category.
PT worked hard for his Senatorship. By which I mean he ran 9+ times. That election wasn't an example of young players working hard particularly for a position because PT did nothing of value legislatively besides run every election. It was definitely a referendum on experienced and qualified older members expecting that new / younger citizens value their previous contributions without continued visible service. It did not help that skizzy does not use discord which we see time and again is a political edge.
Discord is becoming more and more the face of Europeia
 
Comrade Snowball said:
PhDre said:
GraVandius said:
Which statement best characterizes your view? (August 2017)

Older members expect to be handed political positions without putting in the work: 24.1% (+1.2%)
Older members work for political positions, but not as hard as newer members have to: 69% (+20.4%)
Older members work just as hard for political positions as newer members: 6.9% (-21.7%)
I'm wondering if this large change is due to the uproar of Possibly This's upset over Skizzy back then and a greater number of older members being up in arms over that issue. Now that things have returned to normal, I think less hysteria is the reason for that drop in the final category.
PT worked hard for his Senatorship. By which I mean he ran 9+ times. That election wasn't an example of young players working hard particularly for a position because PT did nothing of value legislatively besides run every election. It was definitely a referendum on experienced and qualified older members expecting that new / younger citizens value their previous contributions without continued visible service. It did not help that skizzy does not use discord which we see time and again is a political edge.
Discord is becoming more and more the face of Europeia
Discord is not becoming the face of Europeia, or NS in general. Discord is simply part of yet another shift in the medium of communication throughout NS. It was no different from when NS switched from IRC to predominantly Skype messaging.
 
I'll take your word for it, I wasn't around back then. I assumed it was IRC because some regions still use IRC over Discord and Skype.
 
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