ENN Election Chat — Discussion On Exclusive Results Of Latest Poll

Man, the pundits were wrong.
 
I said they didn't and don't regret it.
 
Lethen said:
Man, the pundits were wrong.
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I mean yes... but also no? Objectively, it is much harder to poll users who don't show up on the forums as much. Most people who take polls are usually active on the forums, or at least active regulars in EuroChat. The demographics were just off, but you can't really account for something like that as much as you can IRL.

If I knew who some of the people were who showed up to vote but aren't much active otherwise I would've sought them out to send them a link the a poll, but it's not worth doing that for 150 citizens tbqh.

The most recent poll had 45 responses with Darcness getting 72%. That's around 32 votes. Both candidates exceeded their raw # of supporters in the polls (as is usual), but Brun's voting base comes from a group of users who are less likely to take them.
 
(ftr I'm not judging or casting aspersions at low engagement voters, I'm just saying that it's infinitely hard to poll something when you cant get a good demographic read, especially if that demographic breaks very hard for one side.)
 
Aexnidaral Seymour said:
Lethen said:
Man, the pundits were wrong.
Click to expand...
I mean yes... but also no? Objectively, it is much harder to poll users who don't show up on the forums as much. Most people who take polls are usually active on the forums, or at least active regulars in EuroChat. The demographics were just off, but you can't really account for something like that as much as you can IRL.

If I knew who some of the people were who showed up to vote but aren't much active otherwise I would've sought them out to send them a link the a poll, but it's not worth doing that for 150 citizens tbqh.

The most recent poll had 45 responses with Darcness getting 72%. That's around 32 votes. Both candidates exceeded their raw # of supporters in the polls (as is usual), but Brun's voting base comes from a group of users who are less likely to take them.
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I said on the radio program with Vac that a really high turnout would favor Brun because the gap in voters who didn't pay attention to the scandal and Brun's favorability with that group.

I didn't expect them to show up, but I'm not surprised she won after getting them to turn out.
 
I don't think it was the JayDee Scandal driving brun's numbers down in these polls, since Brun personally polled better than her new VP here. The real initial takeway seemed to be that Rach was a drag on her chances.

As it turns out, Rach was probably a big help in GOTV.
 
Aexnidaral Seymour said:
Most people who take polls are usually active on the forums, or at least active regulars in EuroChat.
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There are also a fairly large group (imo) of older members and active forum users who simply do not vote in polls because it is perceived as too much work. I mean, I personally have probably voted in perhaps 5% of polls. There will probably be an article on it by me; but I think we tend to put far more stock into polls than into reality. A great recent example of this was Sanctaria doing a nearly perfect job as Minister and yet polling worse than many other Ministries by 10-20%. So I do think there is a difference between doing a job well and polling well. Sometimes they overlap, but not always as in the case of Sanctaria. I'd rather a person do their job well and properly than pandering to polls. There seems to be a bit of a culture of trying to do whatever it takes to poll well.
 
The polling was right after he'd gotten the job, and polls about opinion's of someone's tenure are hardly the same thing as polls about elections, Rach.
 
Rach said:
Aexnidaral Seymour said:
Most people who take polls are usually active on the forums, or at least active regulars in EuroChat.
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There are also a fairly large group (imo) of older members and active forum users who simply do not vote in polls because it is perceived as too much work. I mean, I personally have probably voted in perhaps 5% of polls. There will probably be an article on it by me; but I think we tend to put far more stock into polls than into reality. A great recent example of this was Sanctaria doing a nearly perfect job as Minister and yet polling worse than many other Ministries by 10-20%. So I do think there is a difference between doing a job well and polling well. Sometimes they overlap, but not always as in the case of Sanctaria. I'd rather a person do their job well and properly than pandering to polls. There seems to be a bit of a culture of trying to do whatever it takes to poll well.
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I think overall our polls have a pretty decent track record. As we learned this election, though, they aren't infallible.
 
HEM said:
Rach said:
Aexnidaral Seymour said:
Most people who take polls are usually active on the forums, or at least active regulars in EuroChat.
Click to expand...
There are also a fairly large group (imo) of older members and active forum users who simply do not vote in polls because it is perceived as too much work. I mean, I personally have probably voted in perhaps 5% of polls. There will probably be an article on it by me; but I think we tend to put far more stock into polls than into reality. A great recent example of this was Sanctaria doing a nearly perfect job as Minister and yet polling worse than many other Ministries by 10-20%. So I do think there is a difference between doing a job well and polling well. Sometimes they overlap, but not always as in the case of Sanctaria. I'd rather a person do their job well and properly than pandering to polls. There seems to be a bit of a culture of trying to do whatever it takes to poll well.
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I think overall our polls have a pretty decent track record. As we learned this election, though, they aren't infallible.
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This isn't the first time the polls of the politically engaged have run smack into the realities of GOTV. This is an especially noteworthy time. If we don't find ways to poll better, though, we may as well give up on election polls, if this level of cavnassing, or something even halfway as intense, becomes the new normal, which it increasingly seems like it is.
 
I will say this again, but there are a lot of politically engaged people who do not take polls and there were quite a few who changed their mind... particularly in Radio & Interior after we changed our platform with their help :)
 
Well, ultimately election polls don't matter because the only poll that matters is on election day.
 
Rach said:
I will say this again, but there are a lot of politically engaged people who do not take polls and there were quite a few who changed their mind... particularly in Radio & Interior after we changed our platform with their help :)
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Then how did the number of voters break all records, Rach? Between the huge stack early in your favor (mostly of low-engagers) and this theoretical 'all these engaged people who don't take polls but then broke for you guys after because of changed platform', you could have had your number of votes, give or take, but the total number of voters wouldn't have been so high.

You have a very vested interest in putting a certain spin on your numbers.

Now, granted, I have at least a personal interest in putting the opposite spin on your numbers, but you are overstating matters, based on all the evidence I saw on election day.
 
Guarantee Radio will still have stunted thoughts behind it. If a ticket can't read the gorram manifesto then it's likely they can't read much else (I guess they'll continue making light of mental health).
 
hyanygo said:
Guarantee Radio will still have stunted thoughts behind it. If a ticket can't read the gorram manifesto then it's likely they can't read much else (I guess they'll continue making light of mental health).
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Gorram Manifesto?
 
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