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Welcome to ENN's first Election Chat, where we bring people together to discuss what's up with the ongoing elections. Today we were provided an advance copy of Aexnidaral's "NewsGrumps" poll, the only poll taken after JayDee dropped out as Brunhilde's running mate.
For all the numbers and punditry, read on!
HEM: (ENN Publisher)
Hey everyone. Thanks for tuning into ENN's first Election Chat of the October 2017 Election. I'm HEM Tiberius, and with me today is some random people we pulled out of EuroChat, erm, I mean, our veteran political commentators!
So I am going to share some numbers from NewsGrumps' latest election poll. Because this is a cheap cable TV substitute, we are going to start with the more boring questions and end with the one everyone cares about!
Let's get started!
Calvin Coolidge: (Former President)
43 responses? Whoa.
Rand: (Attorney General)
FYI 7% of 43 is 3.
Festavo: (Senator)
Wow. Rach is certainly very polarizing according to this poll.
Snowball: (Deputy Minister)
Not surprising
Calvin Coolidge:
It's a pretty clear difference, obviously in the Vice Presidential picks. Sopo is consistently popular in recent polls, and that trend continues here. The other tickets failed to find someone who could rival him in approval, and that does not do them any favors. Brun had to get some strong positive numbers after the recent ticket swap, and she does not get that. If anything, these numbers are just as bad, if not worse. Kudos to Darc for making a smart pick, at least on paper.
Snowball:
Sopo does not bring up controversy or hate the way Rach might, and people don't know Templar. As Calvin said, this will be a huge disappointment for Brun.
Festavo:
I said before that Rach would be the discussion generating and controversial pick Brun could make and it seems to ring true. On paper Sopo seems as popular as Bernie Sanders in Vermont. Darc made a wise choice and only time will tell if Brun's gamble will pay off. The numbers aren't kind.
Calvin Coolidge:
The question is: does Brun really need more controversy in this race? What does she gain from that?
Snowball:
She can not afford any. And last i checked, wasn't there a minicontriversery with rach being on a ticket with Brun, a SC?
Festavo:
She doesn't need more controversy and logic would dictate that she won't gain anything from it. It's a very risky gamble and these numbers are not encouraging in the slightest. It's worth noting that the prevalent opinion prior to this poll was that Rach is the best pick Brun could reasonably make.
Rand:
Looking only at the VP numbers, the majority of respondents disapprove of Rach. In some ways, I thought she was an improvement from JayDee, but JayDee only had 34% disapproval in the last poll. I think that last poll was before the controversy broke out on their platform thread though - I would've liked to see some numbers on JayDee's approval now. Rach lead the populist FEQ for awhile and I thought that would improve her numbers.
Sopo's high approval ratings are surprising. I thought the apparent failure of the States program and his low profile over these past few months would create more of a drag on his approval.
Overall, these numbers are flat, this race is sick. Can we skip to the more interesting questions now?
HEM:
Okay, let's move to the President favorables.
Same question, but with the top of the ticket:
Calvin Coolidge:
Darc's got a 90% approval rating, while Brun has 70%. 20% might not seem like a big difference, but when you consider only 10% of the region disapproves of Darc as a candidate, you have to wonder how anyone can counter that (unless the strength of his support is weak, but those numbers haven't been provided yet). For some reason, despite the region not being familiar with Dark Templar or Oakrugia, Oakruiga has avoided more of the disapproval than Templar. Do we place more blame on the VPs for longshot tickets now?
Festavo:
It looks like Darcness is extremely well liked in the region today. It looks like Sopo isn't the only one the majority of people want to stalk :stuck_out_tongue: The Darc/Sopo ticket is looking like fire on paper right so far. Extremely favorable numbers here.
Brunhilde seems to be reasonably liked here. Much better numbers than her running mate, but nowhere near the level of universal love her opponent is getting. Brunhilde seems to be the more popular one on the ticket but I don't think it's enough to outweigh the poor numbers for Rach. Their ticket is definitely more controversial.
Snowball:
Darc's popularity really shows here. Forget about Sopo, he is the real Bernie Sanders.
Brun has good numbers, but I think she does not resonate with younger members as much, which may lead to these numbers. Sometimes you have to have a personal connection to rate them really highly.
Yet again, people either think Oak is green or just don't know him.
Festavo:
Honestly, Darc isn't Bernie. Darc is Mother Teresa here lol
HEM:
I do think it is interesting that both major candidates have, for what it's worth, very positive approvals
Like obviously Darc comes out ahead here, but I don't see a lot of venom here?
Snowball:
For me, it really comes down to the VP.
I think both candidates would do a really god job.
Rand:
Darc's crew is big and it keeps getting bigger. His 90% approval is up from 77% last time. Brunhilde is also up, from 57% to 63%. This is all meaningless without an adversarial comparison.
Calvin Coolidge:
I wonder if Brun also got a boost of sympathy from the whole JayDee situation? I think her numbers were lower in the last poll?
Rand:
Word up, Calvin.
Festavo:
Rach has more avenues for attack than Sopo. The only thing people can really attack Sopo for is bolting mid term in the past. That's a concerning thing but it isn't as juicy as attacking Rach on alleged hypocrisy or things like that.
Rand:
I'm freestyling here without the real numbers. Both candidates are boringly popular. How do Brun and Darc do in a face off?
HEM:
One more question first!
The logical next question: the popularity of all three tickets as combined entities.
Calvin Coolidge:
Looks like the approval numbers are pretty much averages of the two candidates, which helps no ticket in particular, but really hurts Brun/Rach, who have the widest disparity between the two candidates on the ticket. Brun is definitely dragged down, and that can't be good for the ticket's chances.
Snowball:
Darcness/Sopo has a whooping 83.7% average, we see here that Rach really brings Brun down, and Oak is too green for people.
Festavo:
The Darcness/Sopo ticket is really looking like it's on fire right now. It's uncontroversial and lovable. It's like white cake. It may not be very exciting but it's reliable.
The Brun/Rach ticket is definitely more controversial. Approval is above 50% but again nowhere near Darc/Sopo. The numbers aren't looking very good for them. They aren't white cake here. They are definitely something more like spice cake. People are going to have differing opinions here. It doesn't bode well for getting elected.
Rand:
She's not really a game changer or political arranger. Rach's only pulled Brunhilde's ticket down 1.5%; Brun/JayDee was 45.7, Brun/Rach is 44.2. It's certainly throwing some doubt into voters' minds though; B/J was 20% Strong Approval, B/R is down 4% to 16%.
Darcness might as well've been born to a virgin mom in a manger. His ticket's at 84% approval, so that's double Brun/Rach's. We can't really predict the race without seeing the head-to-head numbers, but I think it's become clear that Darcness/Sopo is the leader in this race. That could be a good or bad thing.
HEM:
Awesome. Great insight everyone.
Gonna throw the head-to-head numbers up, as well as the numbers on whether people would be likely to change their minds or not
Snowball:
Darcness has over 55%, and most of the undecideds lean towards him. But the fact that 40% might change their mind says Brun still has a chance, but the way things are going now, it doesn't look like thats going to happen.
Calvin Coolidge:
When both Presidential candidates have such high approval, I suppose it's not that surprising there is this much uncertainty still in the minds of the voters. Obviously, Darc is a much better position here, winning handily in both scenarios, but there is time for votes to shift to Brun. Since she is less popular, though, I wonder what she can do to win over voters that she hasn't already done. Perhaps change her Radio plan, which seems to have generated the most criticism? I don't know, these numbers have to make Darc happy. And Oak actually manages to pick up some votes once voters are forced to choose, though it looks like it won't be enough to force a runoff, unless it gets a lot more competitive.
Festavo:
These numbers are unsurprising considering the approval ratings. Darcness is absolutely dominating this race and its going to be extremely tough for Brunhilde to overcome that. The silver lining in the cloud for her is that 41% of people could change their mind, but even then it won't be easy at all. She is going to need to summon a divine hand from God or Buddha to pull this off. It's possible because polls may not be 100% accurate and there are a lot of people open to changing their minds (whether they are mostly leaning to her or Darc is unknown) plus you have to take into account the people who only read platforms last minute and make up their mind on election day. It's a lot of maybes. The safe money is on Darc at this point, but anything can happen. It isn't over until the last vote is cast.
Rand:
This flash poll was too fast. People need time to sit down and take some water or wine, whatever drink, exchange 'eir thoughts. 41.9% saying they might change their mind basically means nothing is decided now. If everyone who said "I might change my mind" did so, then it's possible Brunhilde would jump to 70% and Darcness fall to 30%. At this point, it's still anyone's game. Nobody's going to die for any sins yet, as far as I can tell. Brun/Rach is not in the "hail mary" range yet.
Festavo:
Well, we can't just assume all 40% voted for Darc in the poll.
Rand:
It's mathematically possible.
Snowball:
Im going to guess 30% or so of the undecideds are for Brun
Rand:
I preach numbers, that's my gig.
Festavo:
So is Oak getting 40% of the vote and possibly winning it all. That's mathematically possible.
HEM:
Just doing some napkin math here.
We have 43 people who took the poll. That means 25 are behind Darc, 8 are behind Brun, and 10 are undecided.
Of all of those people, 18 people might change their mind. Moreover, my hunch is that the "might change their mind" isn't in Brun's favor, as the undecideds widely break for Darc when given the chance in the next question.
The numbers here are formidable for Brunhilde, to be completely honest. Something with have to fundamentally shift for Brun to come back, and I'm not sure what that would be because Darc and Sopo have been pretty boring and polished.
Rand:
This is something every poll needs but none of them do: correlative analysis. I need to see how many of those undecideds belong to Brun/Rach. I need to see how the people who are rating Rach poorly are then rating Brunhilde.
Calvin Coolidge:
Wouldn't it make more sense to have the 40% be seen as the numbers in the second questions, where half of the previously undecideds go for Darc and half go for Brun?
Yeah, some specifics would be nice, of course, but we don't have that
HEM:
One thing I will say is that this poll was put out probably at Brunhilde's rock bottom - right after JayDee left the ticket and her running mate got questioned about running with a Vice Chancellor when she was previously opposed.
I would expect Brunhilde to finish higher than the numbers in this poll. But I would not expect her to win based on this.
Rand:
I agree. Like I said, too fast. Brun may rhyme better after recovering from the JayDee incident.
Snowball:
I would guess, that if taken today, Brun would be higher, but Darc might also, given that Election Day is closing in.
Festavo:
The only way we can find out for sure is to watch the results on election day. It will be an interesting election for sure. Entertaining for some and nerve racking for others.
Rand:
I don't think it'll be entertaining or nerve-wracking. I said it before, I'll say it again: this election is boring. All the candidates, I wish them well.
HEM:
A question for the panel: Why is Brunhilde struggling to connect with the electorate. While this election isn't over yet, she is pretty far behind a candidate who is more-or-less completely opposite from her previous opponent, Cat. To me, that suggests something about Brunhilde isn't sitting well with the electorate. Am I right, and what is that thing?
Rand:
Brun hasn't held elected office in like a year. She hasn't passed the mic.
Snowball:
Brun does not resonate with newer members like Darcness does. New members know Darc from FA, and have probably had a conversation with him. Brun, on the other hand, is more reserved and has not held a office in a while
Calvin Coolidge:
I don't know if Darc is the opposite of Cat, at least in one key area: activity. Brun is someone viewed as less active than desirable for a President, and she has not done much to change that perception since the last time she ran. If her opponent is someone incredibly active and visible, like Cat or Darc, then Brun suffers, and we're seeing that again here.
Rand:
This is hitting close to home.
Festavo:
Brunhilde has a perception issue. The perception is that she doesn't do anything until election season and then shoots for the highest office in the land. I'd argue that that isn't the reality of the situation at all, but the perception is there and that is hard to shake. People like to vote for somebody that is getting public results now instead of a year ago. People can have short memories and they see Darcness' popular time as MoFA as more important than his rather boring Presidency and they see Brun as a low key Vice Chancellor as more important than her successful time as MoFA, MoC, and unfortunately interrupted time as VP. She is having a hard time shaking this issue and she will likely need to put it to rest before she can become President
Calvin Coolidge:
It also does not help that Brun's strength is only in one area, and something countered in both elections. WL was the FA counter in the last election, and Darc is the counter now. On top of that, the other candidates bring something else to table. Brun really brings only the one thing, and that hurts her.
Festavo:
Brun is more well rounded than she gets credit for but her home is very obviously foreign affairs. That's her passion and you can tell that influences most everything for her.
Calvin Coolidge:
Most people are more well rounded than they get credit for, but in elections credit is mostly what matters.
Snowball:
When you look at Brun's "Home" ministries, it doesn't really look like she knows what she is talking about, and theres nothing new
Calvin Coolidge:
The fact is that she is only cultivating one image, that of a FA stalwart. That's a decision she has made by devoting the vast majority of her time there, so people are not judging her entirely unfairly if that's all they see, at least in recent terms.
Darc and Cat diversified, and it paid off. (Well, might pay off, for Darc)
Festavo:
In the event that she loses this election she will need to really re-evaluate and alter her image before she runs again.
Snowball:
But if she loses this, will she run again?
Festavo:
Next cycle? I'd advise against it.
HEM:
I feel like she'd have to take a term to serve in a Cabinet or Senate.
Calvin Coolidge:
Yeah, if she loses two times in a row trying the same thing, she'd be ignoring something big to try again with the same tactic.
Festavo:
At least 1. It depends on multiple factors. She could be better suited running for Vice President next cycle or the one after that and serving a VP term or two to prove a few things and help perception.
Calvin Coolidge:
*At least. We don't know that she will run again, but if she does, she'd likely be better off waiting
Running for Vice President might carry a different standard now, honestly. But that's another discussion.
HEM:
Cool, any closing thoughts?
Anyone feel comfortable making a prediction?
Snowball:
Darcness has this in his pocket. He will win without a runoff.
Rand:
Don't be so hard on Brun. I think she'll have a respectable showing, maybe win if she plays a really good hand.
Calvin Coolidge:
You pretty much have to lean Darc after these two polls, but predicting a sure thing with this amount of uncertainly seems too bold. I think it is fair to say that Brun has suffered a few setbacks, and that they have lessened her chances of winning, but it is not yet out of reach.
HEM:
Darc will win, 60%+
Come at me if I'm wrong —
— But I won't be.
Snowball:
I'll say 55%+
Festavo:
I'm not going to make any solid predictions. I'll be voting for Brun but, if I had to bet, I'd bet my money on Darc. I'd like to extend my very best wishes to both of the candidates and I know both would do a good job. I just happen to think Brun would do a better job :wink: Election day is coming up on us soon and I can't wait to see how this plays out. If Brun wins it will be a huge upset.
HEM:
I don't trust any man, but I do trust the polls.
Calvin Coolidge:
Now if Oak wins, that'll be the upset.
Festavo:
That would be a colossal upset.
But it is mathematically possible.
Check Out NewsGrumps tomorrow for the full release of their latest poll!
