Election Dissection

Common-Sense Politics

Audentes Fortuna Juvat
Deputy Minister
Honoured Citizen
Citizen
Pronouns
He/Him


With just over two days until polls open in the upcoming senatorial general election, let's take a look at how it's played out so far and our predicted results. The latest edition of the Citizen's Smokin' Poll asked Europeians who they expected to cast their votes for. The results were thus:

Smokin' Poll: Senate Race June '14 said:
Anumia - 17
Drecq - 17
HEM - 17
modernsin - 17
PASD - 14
PhDre - 14
Zenny Anumia - 10
Raging Zen Master - 6
Apollo - 5
Imperium - 5
Matthew Vinage - 4

Down For the Count

Senator Raging Zen Master has withdrawn his candidacy citing his nomination to be the next Minister of Communications and his desire to commit fully to those duties should he be confirmed. This comes on the heels of seemingly growing criticism of his service in the Senate. Coincidence? It's hard to tell but in any case, he's out.

Apollo, to date, has still not posted a campaign thread in the Oval Room. He hasn't engaged any of his opponents in their threads either. This would hurt any candidate but add to the mix the fact that younger Europeians are not necessarily familiar with him or his record and you have one dud of a senate bid. At this late stage, we have every reason to believe that Apollo will not be elected to the Senate this time around.

Our friend Matthew Vinage has had a rough go of it. After posting an underwhelming platform, having his only idea shot down, and finishing dead last in polling behind, count 'em, three candidates who couldn't be bothered to post a platform he hasn't made any visible effort to right the ship. It's a dead stick. We predict Matthew Vinage will not be elected to the Senate on Friday.

Frontrunners

PhDre, as stated before has produced the best platform in this race. He has demonstrated an exceptional grasp of issues facing the Senate and has put forth specific, realistic, and relevant plans. He has proven his comfort with well reasoned debate among his potential colleagues. The only reason he won't garner the most votes is because of perceived activity liability. We predict PhDre will be elected comfortably to the Senate and grant him our full and unfettered endorsement.

Senator modernsin is perhaps the safest of incumbents going into Friday's voting. His measured, no nonsense approach garners him a wide base of support and that's reflected in poll numbers. He's perceived as a steady hand and his ability to communicate his positions with voters is enviable. We predict MS will win re-election comfortably and also offer him the endorsement of the Citizen.

HEM is black in black...or whatever color he wants. I've know this fellow for a long time, guys. You can tell when he's dipping his toe in the water and when he's pushing all his chips into the middle. When he's all-in, he's a hell of a guy to work with and it's my opinion that this is one of those times. Given his conduct throughout the campaign, his decent platform, his strong showing in the polls, and his status as the almighty Founder of Europeia, HEM cruises to victory and has earned an endorsement from this outlet.

Do I really need to talk about Anumia? The guy can write like Shakespeare, think like Socrates, and I learned on EuroChat yesterday that he can sing too. I bet he's hung like a bull moose. In all seriousness, his platform impressed even if it lacked detail. He maintains overwhelming affection from the community excepting PhDre. His legislative record is impressive. This will be a walk in the park. Anumia wins big and receives an enthusiastic endorsement from us.

Drecq's campaign thread was bare-bones. Nobody seems to care. Frankly, neither do we. The Speaker is a proven commodity and it would be a travesty if he were to be unseated, not to mention highly unlikely. Drecq is the last of our frontrunners and is projected to be very successful in his bid for re-election. To him goes our final endorsement. We love us some Drecq.

Stuck In The Middle With...Himself

PASD is a puzzling case. His platform wasn't going to knock anyone's socks off and he hasn't been the most active guy as of late but he enjoys some strong numbers in our poll. We're not exactly sure where that support is coming from but based solely on that we expect him to be likely to fill one of the two remaining seats however his position is far from comfort or stability.

Wildcards

Zenny Anumia has neglected to post a platform thread. Whether this is because she expects her friends to vote for her, is truly afraid to be shouted down as she has asserted, or doesn't care it's not what Europeians have historically expected from its senatorial candidates. She has questioned other candidates about their stance on the obscenity clause, an issue she feels strongly about. She also garnered some decent numbers in polling. Will she get one of those remaining two swing seats? It's a toss-up.

Imperium is the true wildcard in this race. Frankly, we expected him to do better in polling than he did which was fairly poor. It will be interesting though to see where RZM's supporters go, if anywhere. Imperium has as good a chance as anybody of scooping them up. Do not be shocked if he steals the last seat on Friday. I won't be.

Parting Thoughts

It would behoove the incoming Senate to facilitate a battle for the speakership. Send a message right off the bat that this term is going to be different. Fabricate some enthusiasm for and interest in our legislative affairs. Trust us, it will serve you well. A three way slugfest between Drecq, MS, and PhDre should do the trick.

Good luck to all the candidates. Let the responsibility of victory weigh upon you as you dispense your duties to the Republic and let a defeat serve as motivation to better yourself and try again. Don't take your ball and go home.
 
Nice analysis...though for the most part this election's results aren't especially difficult to predict. I do think Drecq is a safer incumbent than me though. :p Still, we could see some surprises.

I'll start working on my Speaker campaign straight away. :ph43r:
 
Very engaging! Thanks for this CSP!

*also thanks for the endorsement.
 
Common-Sense Politics said:
Do I really need to talk about Anumia? The guy can write like Shakespeare, think like Socrates, and I learned on EuroChat yesterday that he can sing too. I bet he's hung like a bull moose.
It has been a while, but I think I need to add to my signature. :p

Thank you for the endorsement ^_^ and in general, for these very entertaining analyses of our elections.
 
While younger players may not know Apollo that well, he could possibly still garner enough votes purely based on reputation. I've never liked that fact.*







*Even if I'm the standard bearer for a well-known Europeian who can do literally nothing, run without a platform or saying anything, and get elected**
**Though last time I tried that, I almost lost. Which is good.***
***Can you do footnote asterisks attached to other footnote asterisks, or do you need to change the format?1
1Like that, I mean.
 
Lethen said:
While younger players may not know Apollo that well, he could possibly still garner enough votes purely based on reputation. I've never liked that fact.
I don't know. If RZM stays out, that means we'll have three losers in this race. If you're one of those people who puts a lot of stock in pre-election polls (I'm not), then it's interesting to see that we have 7 clear frontrunners and 3 distantly trailing. A lot can change between now and Friday (more people could post platforms, for one <_< ), but I don't think we'll see a major upset at the polls.
 
Id like a good battle for the Speakership. MS and PhDre start preparing. :p
 
4 WAY BATTLE ROYAL! HEM is putting his hat in the ring as well. He dont have no choice in the matter.
 
Drecq said:
4 WAY BATTLE ROYAL! HEM is putting his hat in the ring as well. He dont have no choice in the matter.
I certainly wouldn't mind the job...
 
Thank you for the endorsement, CSP.

I look forward to seeing the last few platforms limb into the Oval Room. It appears from the polls that not posting a platform wasn't punished by poll voters, but I hope that is punished in the actual election.
 
PhDre said:
Thank you for the endorsement, CSP.

I look forward to seeing the last few platforms limb into the Oval Room. It appears from the polls that not posting a platform wasn't punished by poll voters, but I hope that is punished in the actual election.
In the poll, the three who didn't post platforms were among the lowest-rated candidates, and all fell below the top 7 positions.
 
Zenny is in 7th position right now without a platform. And I feel the candidates who are the top of the poll would be there regardless of the quality or existence of their platform, and the same to a lesser extent for the bottom (for better or worse).
 
As a side note, I've gone back and attempted to chart Senate composition throughout elections and by-elections, going back to August 2012. In July 2013 there were 5 candidates for 5 seats including 2 returning Senators. In September 2013 we had 2 Senators competing as well. Besides that we haven't had less than 3 returning Senators running in a Senate election, until this election. Interpret that as you will.

Note: I could be wrong with my figures here I just did a quick look through the Oval Room.
 
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