Are We Having More Presidential Successions?

Ervald

“I love to be directed. They can trust me and go.”
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"Are We Having More Presidential Successions?"
Ervald
ENN Writer

I was just wondering to myself the other day, are we having more presidential successions? Ever since I joined Europeia in 2015, I have felt like I been seeing more presidential successions over this past year but I could be biased since I wasn't always an active citizen in Europeia. So, I decided to do some investigating by looking through the records of 2015-2017 with two questions in mind. Are presidential successions getting more common each year and are Vice Presidents that succeed to the Presidency serving longer? Here is what I found out.

So, before I reveal what I discovered, I need to share two disclaimers. The first one is I am going to be saying "succession" a lot in this article. When I refer to that word, I am not talking about the next elected President, I am only talking about the Vice President becoming President in the middle of a term. The second one is I didn't realize until recently that my timezone on the forum was set to Coordinated Universal Time so if the dates I provide somehow seem off to you, that's why. Thank you, we will now get to it.


First off, we identify by each year of 2015-2017 which elected presidency involved their Vice President becoming the President and how long they served.

2015:
There were no Presidents that resigned the Presidency so we did not witness any successions.

2016:
When Vice President Calvin Coolidge temporarily became Acting President for President Trinnien in March, we will not be counting that event as a succession since it was only temporary.

Trinnien became President on July 3, 2016, and resigned on August 11th, 2016, which is 39 days served as President. Vice President HEM succeeded to the Presidency on August 11th, 2016, and his term ended on September 11th, 2016, which is 31 days served as President.

2017:
Calvin Coolidge became President on April 10th, 2017, and resigned on May 15th, 2017, which is 35 days served as President. Vice President Darcness succeeded to the Presidency on May 15th, 2017, and his term ended on June 17th, 2017, which is 33 days served as President.

Cat became President on August 27th, 2017, and resigned on September 2nd, 2017, which is 6 days served as President. Vice President Writinglegend succeeded to the Presidency on September 2nd, 2017, and his term ended on November 4th, 2017, which is 63 days served as President.

Brunhilde became President on November 4th, 2017, and was banned on November 11th, 2017, which is 7 days served as President. Vice President Rach succeeded to the Presidency on November 11th, 2017, and safely assuming she will carry out the rest of her term, her term will end on January 12th, 2017, (according to the Election Schedule in the Grand Hall) which will be 62 days served as President.


To put all of that information into a picture, we're gonna divide it up into two graphs to answer my two main questions: Are presidential successions getting more common each year and are Vice Presidents that succeed to the Presidency serving longer?

As we can see from the graph above regarding the number of presidential successions per year from 2015-2017, we see a very sharp rise. We got nothing in 2015, one presidential succession in 2016, and then three in 2017. Now, an increase from zero to three presidential successions in three years may not sound like a lot but consider the fact that we usually have six presidential elections per year. That means that in 2015, any VP would not have been wise to bet on becoming President in the middle of a term but this past year, a VP would have bet well with one half of a chance becoming president in the middle of a term in 2017. There is no doubt that presidential successions are getting more common each year.

Another interesting factor to look at from the graph above is how long Vice Presidents that succeed to the Presidency are serving. When HEM succeeded Trinnien to the Presidency, HEM went on to serve the last 44.3% of the term. However, that number won't go on to serve as an average or median of the percentage of the term for the rest of Vice Presidents that go on to finish as President. It only gets longer. Vice President Darcness as President went to serve the last 48.5% of the term for Calvin Coolidge, and both Vice President Writinglegend and Rach will go on to finish about the last 91.3% (slightly lower for Rach at 89.9%) of their predecessor's term. There is absolutely no doubt that 44.3% jumping to a high of 91.3% is strong evidence that Vice President finishing the term for their predecessor is getting longer and longer.


The two questions that I started this investigation had clear answers. Over these three years, we are seeing more presidential successions and the Vice Presidents that goes on to serve as President for the rest of the term are serving longer. However, this is not just a trend that only impacts 34 Goldenblock Avenue. In the last Senate election, we saw Mr. Verterger who goes on to win in that election advocating for the Vice President to be selected differently saying "...I think a more direct system of VP selection should be developed....". It is possible in the future that we won't just discuss what the Vice President's duties are, but also how they should even be selected. Even if such reforms aren't enacted, it will continue to be influential in presidential elections. Not just so that the running mate balance out the experience or demographic appeal of the ticket but to give the electorate a comfortable back-up if the presidential candidate they vote for resigns in the middle of the term.

When John Nance Garner, the 32nd Vice President said the Vice Presidency was “not worth a bucket of warm piss”, it appears that quote may not be the truth in Europeia. If anything, our Vice Presidency is more like white chocolate; you're either going to somewhat enjoy it or you're gonna love the crap out of it.
 
I would be interested to see the data stretching further back. Presidential resignations used to be more common, then we went through a dry spell, and now it seems we're back to a time where they're the norm.

That said, I think the recent resignations have had more to do with unique circumstances than a real trend. Brun was banned and Cat was caught up in a scandal (and Cat both resigned from other positions before and after she resigned the presidency). I don't expect we'll see three again in 2018.
 
Sopo said:
I would be interested to see the data stretching further back. Presidential resignations used to be more common, then we went through a dry spell, and now it seems we're back to a time where they're the norm.

That said, I think the recent resignations have had more to do with unique circumstances than a real trend. Brun was banned and Cat was caught up in a scandal (and Cat both resigned from other positions before and after she resigned the presidency). I don't expect we'll see three again in 2018.
Yea. Definitely a broader range is needed. It looks really nice with the almost linear relationship with time but I would definitely bet that would not be the case looking farther back.

Props for doing the research though. Very cool.
 
Very rough calculations (read not totally rigorous), but the margin of error is about +/-3 on this data, so it's not statistically significant to show a trend. What it does show is taht we've had a rough year...
 
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